As AUDUSD didn’t go with Gartley pattern, we need another strategy.
From the current trend, AUDUSD will go up for while, but risk to award ratio will be low if we want to long AUDUSD at current position.
From technical analysis, AUDUSD might go with AB=CD pattern and reach ~0.7776. We may consider to short AUDUSD at the position with small trades. Or from reverse 1.618 Fib ration, it might touch the previous highest point 0.7834. We might short AUDUSD at that position with 20pip stop loss.
Trade with stop loss!
AUD cuts interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.50 per cent, effective 3 August 2016. However, AUDUSD is not weakening, which is probably due to weak US dollar. Although AUDUSD is up trend, let’s watch closely whether it will go with Gartley pattern.
The potential trade opportunity is to short at ~0.7650 and sl is at 0.7685, while tp is at 0.7400.
From the post on Jul 27, 2016 before FOMC meeting, I said that we can look for short USDJPY if the statement is not hawkish and target for level 103.35. It did follow my forecast and I earned 200+ pip on USDJPY.
With not that loose JPY monetary policy and bad US GDP data today, USDJPY drops below 103.35 level and it didn’t oscillate. It will probably continue to drop until it touches the downward channel that I drew in green. Let’s watch this area (highlight in yellow) closely.
I will post the trading strategy later on. Thank you!
I posted the EURUSD forecast last week on Jul 24, 2016. It shows that it follows the green dash line but it comes up a bit earlier as a lot of events happening this week. Let’s watch the area (highlight in yellow) closely. If it doesn’t penetrate the resistance line fully, we might consider to short euro at this position.
From 1D chart, it is clear that USDJPY trend is downward. For Jul FOMC meeting, the expectation for interest rate will stay unchanged. The important point is still the possibility of future interest rate hike.
If the statement is hawkish, USDJPY might start to break the downward trend and rally upwards, provided that it confidently breaks the resistance line at 107.486. Together with recent loose monetary policy from BOJ, the USDJPY rally is possible (30% chance)
While if the statement is dovish and worrying about the global economy and impact of brexit, USDJPY will weaken and drops towards ~103.358 and oscillate for a while (70% chance).
Let’s wait and see the results!
Don’t rush, and be prepared with plans.
After EURUSD broke the upward channel, it looks to be bearish trend now. It is now hitting at the support level (1.0976). Let’s watch this area for next week. If it broke the support line at 1.0976, let’s wait for it come back a bit then short EURUSD till ~1.08. It might bounce back at 1.0976 and if it doesn’t penetrate through the resistance line at ~1.12, then we can short EURUSD at that position. The SL should put above the resistance lines.
The forecast is valid for two weeks. Let’s check it out next week.
Don’t rush! Be prepared with plans!
This is the post excerpt.
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July 24, 2016